AFLA Conference Archives-Executive Outlook: Navigating What’s Next in Fleet

Video Transcription

Video Summary

Tyson Jomany from J.D. Power delivers an in-depth analysis of the current automotive market focusing on industry supply, fleet sales, pricing, and EV trends. He highlights the shift from rapidly growing fleet sales, now stagnated at around 3 million units, due to automakers prioritizing retail channels and a dated ICE vehicle portfolio. The industry sees rising production and inventory, accompanied by increasing incentives and rising transaction prices, leading to much lower dealer profitability compared to several years ago.<br /><br />Tariffs, initially threatening to add significant costs (~11% per vehicle), have seen limited pass-through to consumers due to asymmetric global production, though automakers absorb considerable profit hits. The impending federal EV tax credit expiration sparks a surge in EV purchases, despite EV sales representing around 9% and requiring heavy incentives averaging $17,000 per unit— dwarfing non-EV incentives. Leasing and fleet returns remain historically low, impacting used vehicle availability and sustaining high used prices.<br /><br />Jomany discusses challenges in attracting younger buyers amid cost and ride-share alternatives and notes SUVs dominate both retail and fleet segments. Autonomous vehicles and subscriptions are anticipated but likely limited in near-term market impact. Despite short-term EV sales declines and affordability challenges, he remains optimistic about technological advances, infrastructure improvements, and eventual EV sales growth to 20% by decade's end. Overall, the market faces complexities but shows gradual recovery and adaptation.

Asset Subtitle

Tyson Jominy, J.D. Power

Meta Tag

Location Marco Island, FL

Year 2025

Keywords

2025

Marco Island, FL

automotive market analysis

fleet sales stagnation

retail channel prioritization

EV trends and incentives

dealer profitability decline

tariffs impact on vehicle costs

federal EV tax credit expiration

used vehicle market dynamics

SUV dominance in sales